STORY OF THE WEEK
What the Midterms Mean for Markets
Investors spent the week adjusting to a new Congress, and different parts of the market reacted in different ways.
Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in Tuesday’s midterm elections. In Texas, James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton to become the state’s first Democrat elected to the Senate since 1988, and Gina Hinojosa defeated Gov. Greg Abbott, becoming the first Democrat elected governor there since 1990. Exit polls showed the economy as voters’ top issue, and most said inflation had caused hardship. Most also said the U.S. made the wrong decision in going to war with Iran.
Markets often move after elections as investors update their expectations for future policy. On Wednesday, the Dow had its best day since April 2025 (+3.0%), and U.S. crude oil fell to about $88 a barrel. Vice President JD Vance tied the results to the war, writing on X, “The reason we lost is the war,” while President Trump said the war was only partly to blame.
Thursday showed how one event can affect sectors differently. The Nasdaq fell -5.5% as investors weighed whether a Democratic Congress could add rules for AI and slow data center construction. Voters had raised the same issue: majorities in every Senate battleground state opposed building a data center in their community. Defense stocks also declined as investors considered how a Democratic Congress might approach President Trump’s $1.5 trillion defense budget request.
The S&P 500 closed -4.4% on Thursday, its largest one-day drop since April 2025.
Individual investors’ net flow into single stocks was -$338 million on Thursday afternoon, before the market closed. Vanda Research said it was the largest one-day outflow for this group since March 2020.
The new Congress takes office in January, creating a divided government with a Republican president. Early market moves reflect expectations, not finished laws. Policy changes take time to work through Congress, and its direction on defense, AI and data centers will become clearer in the months ahead.

