Trump's Greenland Comments Reignite Geopolitical Risk

Markets were shaken this week after President Trump revived pressure on Europe over Greenland, briefly threatening tariffs before pivoting toward discussions with NATO on a future Arctic security framework. The rapid shift in tone triggered a risk-off response across assets, sending gold to record highs, lifting volatility, and dragging equities lower despite no change in underlying economic data.

• Trump threatened tariffs on European allies to push for expanded U.S. access to Greenland
• Denmark and Greenland reaffirmed that sovereignty is non-negotiable
• NATO clarified no deal would compromise territorial integrity
• Tariff threats were later withdrawn, easing immediate trade fears

The episode highlighted how geopolitics, not macro fundamentals, is increasingly driving market moves. Greenland's strategic importance in Arctic security, missile defense, and great-power competition with Russia and China amplifies the stakes, even if existing treaties already grant the U.S. significant military access. The conflicting signals between political rhetoric and diplomatic reality added to investor unease.

For markets, the message was clear. Policy unpredictability can surface abruptly and force rapid repricing, especially when tariffs and national security intersect. The surge in gold reflected renewed demand for protection against geopolitical and inflation risks, while the pullback in equities showed how quickly risk appetite can fade. Even after tensions cooled, investors were left with a reminder that headline-driven shocks remain a persistent feature of the current market environment.

MRNA (+16.6%): Moderna jumped after a skin cancer vaccine it developed with Merck showed strong results, cutting the risk of the cancer coming back or causing death by nearly half.

UUUU (+16.1%): Energy Fuels is up as investors bet on a China-independent rare-earth supply chain. The ASM acquisition signals faster downstream expansion into metals and alloys.

IBKR (+5.8%): Interactive Brokers is up after Q4 earnings beat. Strong trading volumes and account gains offset concerns around rate sensitivity and commission compression.

SHOP (-11.5%): Shopify is down as investors digest a restructuring of its partnerships unit. The stock underperformed as the market weighs whether new finance tools and AI-commerce initiatives can offset near-term partner disruption.

APP (-7.8%): AppLovin is down as investors react to a short-style report alleging criminal activity. The company forcefully denied the claims, calling them false and economically implausible, but the uncertainty drove shares lower.

INTC (-4.0%): Intel is down sharply over weak Q1 guidance. Management cited supply constraints and margin pressure just as investors were looking for clearer AI-driven upside and foundry momentum.

Gold surged to fresh all-time highs this week as renewed tariff threats tied to Greenland and rising geopolitical tensions pushed investors toward safe havens. Prices jumped more than 8% to just under $5,000 per ounce, supported by fears of tariff-driven inflation, a slowing U.S. economy, a weaker dollar, and continued heavy buying from emerging-market central banks.

The rally came as U.S. equities sold off sharply and volatility spiked at the start of the week, with tech leading the decline and Treasury yields rising as investors trimmed U.S. risk exposure. While some of the tariff threats were later walked back, confidence remained fragile, and wealth managers noted that sentiment around gold is becoming increasingly stretched.

Beyond geopolitics, structural demand remains a key driver. Central-bank purchases and rising demand for metals tied to AI, renewables, and electrification have reinforced gold's role as both a hedge and a portfolio diversifier, even as markets debate whether the move reflects durable fundamentals or late-cycle risk aversion.