Intel Delivers for Investors, Including Washington

Intel (INTC) handed Washington its first clear win on the government's equity stake, posting a Q1 that topped estimates and extended a streak of six consecutive beats. Revenue grew, guidance sailed past expectations, and the read-through pulled Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) higher on the day. It was the kind of quarter the turnaround thesis needed, a sign that cost discipline and roadmap resets are starting to show up in the numbers rather than just the narrative. Momentum in the broader semi cycle is building too, with inventory digestion largely complete and unit shipments moving above trendline.

The surrounding AI headlines only reinforce how much silicon the buildout will demand. Google (GOOGL) committed up to $40B to Anthropic, unveiled A5X infrastructure codesigned with Nvidia's Vera Rubin, and reportedly opened chip talks with Marvell (MRVL) – all alongside Vertiv (VRT) and Comfort Systems (FIX) reporting strong earnings as AI buildout accelerates. The prior points to years of sustained compute demand, the kind of backdrop that lifts the entire stack. Intel's onshoring push positions it to capture more of that flow as foundry capacity and domestic supply become strategic priorities.

• Intel beat on Q1 revenue and guided Q2 well above Wall Street expectations, its sixth straight quarterly beat.

• Google committed up to $40B to Anthropic and a massive multi-year compute package, with Amazon (AMZN) adding another $5B.

• AI Infrastructure beneficiaries include Comfort Systems and Vertiv, with earnings landing well with investors.

The quarter reinforces Washington’s strategic bet and restores credibility to Intel’s ability to pursue the AI capex cycle on its own terms. After a challenging stretch since 2021 that called into question its competitiveness and execution, a turning cycle combined with accelerating onshoring tailwinds positions Intel for materially improved access and opportunity.

INTC** **(+20.5%): Intel, the US Government’s new crown jewel, jumped significantly on Friday driven by a beat in revenue and raised guidance.

GEV (+14.6%): Continued data center demand and record backlog has investors flocking to GE Vernova as the AI buildout materializes.

OKLO** **(+6.3%): Despite missing earnings expectations, news of nuclear infrastructure agreements has catalyzed Oklo’s stock.

NOW** **(-6.6%): Enterprise software continues to get hammered as fears surrounding Generative AI threaten the moat of companies like ServiceNow.

FIG (-7.6%): Anthropic’s release of Claude Design spooked Figma investors as the company’s core product offering is being further threatened.

LULU (-14.0%): The new CEO appointment depresses investors as the ex-Nike woman faces the same problems at Lululemon that her team at Nike failed to correctly address.

US export controls were supposed to choke China's access to advanced chipmaking equipment. The chart tells a more complicated story. Netherlands and Japan remain China's largest suppliers, while imports from Singapore and Malaysia have surged, widely seen as transshipment routes that blunt Washington's restrictions. US share has collapsed to the back of the pack. The supply chain isn't decoupling so much as re-routing, with allied nations and intermediaries absorbing what American policy tried to block.

Tensions are spilling beyond trade. This week US forces intercepted a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz that Trump said carried a "gift from China" bound for Iran, adding he "thought I had an understanding with President Xi." Beijing keeps acquiring Western chip tools through the side door while testing US red lines across the Middle East. The cold war framing holds, but the lines are blurrier than the rhetoric suggests.