Trump Pushes for Deal as Hormuz Swings Shut Again

Tehran reasserts control over the strait overnight, denies key nuclear claims, and research points to months of lag before disrupted oil output recovers.

President Trump said Friday that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and will not receive frozen U.S. funds as part of a potential agreement to end the conflict. Speaking to Bloomberg, Trump said the deal is mostly complete, with talks expected to resume soon in Islamabad. "Most of the main points are finalized," Trump said, calling the moratorium "unlimited." Iran has pushed back publicly, with its parliament speaker accusing Trump of seven "false" claims in an hour, and no firm date has been set for the next round of negotiations.

The Strait of Hormuz has since whipsawed. After Iran's foreign minister declared the waterway fully open Friday and Trump announced sea mines were being removed, Iran's joint military command reimposed "strict control" Saturday, warning that transit will stay blocked as long as the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports holds. Maritime authorities reported gunfire and a projectile strike involving Indian vessels in the strait. Benchmark crude fell to its lowest since March 10 on the Friday opening, and at least eight tankers began moving toward the waterway before Iran's reversal.

• CERA estimates 14.2M bbl/day of disrupted supply sits in fields where 90% cannot easily restart; full recovery could take up to seven months, plus another two if port operations lag.

• Iran's forensics chief reports 3,300+ killed in Iran since Feb. 28, with 2,100+ in Lebanon, 32 in Gulf states, 23 in Israel, and 15 U.S. service members (including two noncombat deaths.)

• Trump has signaled he may not extend the two-week ceasefire if no deal lands, saying bombing could resume.

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is holding but fragile, with Israel continuing to strike what it calls imminent Hezbollah threats. Earlier reports indicated negotiators were weighing the release of roughly $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets for Iran's uranium stockpile, though Trump now says no money will change hands and the U.S. will recover the material one way or another.

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