Treasury yields matter because they influence borrowing costs throughout the economy. The 10 year yield briefly reached 4.99% while the 30 year yield reached 5.42%, its highest level since 2007. The Treasury also struggled to calm markets through its bond buyback program, purchasing only $5.2 billion of a planned $6 billion on Thursday.

Inflation and energy prices are adding to the pressure. August CPI rose +0.4%, bringing annual inflation to +3.4%, while core CPI increased +0.3%. Brent crude remains around $104 per barrel and WTI near $100, while the national diesel average reached a record above $6 per gallon.

• The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.07% this week, its first move above 7% in more than a year.

• The 10-year Treasury briefly reached 4.99% on September 11, while the 30-year reached 5.42%.

• The ECB raised rates +0.25% this week, while Japan has not yet raised rates, but markets are pricing in a possible +0.25% hike at its September 17 to 18 meeting.

For consumers, higher Treasury yields could keep mortgages, auto loans and credit cards more expensive. For markets, investors are watching the Fed closely as stronger inflation, elevated energy prices and higher global rates increase uncertainty around the path of interest rates.

BE (+9.0%): Bloom Energy shares are soaring after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the company will join the S&P 500.

MRVL (+5.6%): Marvell is up this week as its transformative Google partnership strengthens investor confidence in its long-term AI growth potential.

META (+5.1%): Meta climbed this week after JPMorgan upgraded the stock and its new Muse AI agent launch boosted investor optimism.

AEO (-13.6%): American Eagle is down this week as investors worry about weaker sales at its main brand and a more cautious outlook for the company.

CELH (-11.2%): Celsius is down after investors reacted negatively to concerns about weaker-than-expected sales and a more challenging outlook for the energy drink company.

SHOP (-11.2%): Shopify’s stock is under pressure as rising Treasury yields make its high valuation less attractive.

U.S. retail sales weakened sharply in July, falling -0.6% after economists had expected a +0.1% increase. The decline marked the first monthly drop in nine months and extended beyond gas stations, with the “control group” of everyday spending categories falling -0.4%, its first decline of the year. The graph shows how spending remained positive throughout the first half of 2026 before turning lower in July. However, some of the weaknesses may have been temporary, as online sales fell -2.2% partly because Amazon’s Prime Day took place in June instead of July this year.

For consumers, the numbers suggest households may be becoming more cautious with their money. Persistent higher prices are encouraging shoppers, especially middle and lower income households, to prioritize essentials and value purchases over less necessary spending. If this trend continues, consumers could see retailers respond with more discounts and promotions as businesses compete for shoppers who are becoming more selective about where they spend.