STORY OF THE WEEK
The Fed Holds Rates, but Questions Rise About Warsh
The grass isn't always greener for investors, as they seem to be missing Powell's certainty.
Kevin Warsh spent his first few weeks as Fed Chair wanting to fight U.S. inflation and pull it back to its 2% target. However, the markets are not so sure about Warsh. On Wednesday, the Fed held rates for a fifth straight meeting, but 3 of its 12 officials favored a hike, the most dissents in one direction since 2016. Warsh's reluctance to outline any concrete action to reach that target left the markets filled with uncertainty.
The issue was not the hold itself, but Warsh's refusal to spell out how he would actually get inflation down, which is a stark contrast from the previous Fed chairs. JPMorgan's note was headlined "Talk is Cheap." Morgan Stanley said it boiled down to "a question of credibility," and Bank of America called markets "doved and confused." Investors dumped long-term Treasurys, sending the 30-year yield to its highest level since 2007.
The 30-year Treasury yield jumped as much as 14 basis points to nearly 5.25%. The 2-year yield fell as investors dialed back bets on a near-term hike.
JPMorgan pulled its rate-hike call forward to December from the second half of 2027, and Bank of America now sees a September hike as more probable.
Warsh also raised doubts by questioning the Fed's longtime favorite tool to judge inflation, the personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) index, saying that he has a broader lens than just that. He also hinted that the Fed's balance sheet could come into play alongside rates to battle inflation. His sharp break from past Fed chairs has shaken both the equity and debt markets.

