Markets are slightly negative in premarket trading as the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran continues, with oil prices remaining elevated and crude sitting around $91 a barrel after briefly spiking to nearly $120 yesterday. President Trump struck an optimistic tone, claiming military objectives are "pretty well complete" and that a resolution could come "very soon," offering some relief to cautious investors. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with Gulf producers cutting nearly 6.7M barrels per day, and the U.S. Navy now escorting tankers to keep supply lines open.
Aramco CEO Warns of Catastrophic Oil Market Consequences
Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) CEO Amin Nasser warned the Iran war threatens "catastrophic consequences" for global oil markets, citing a "drastic domino effect" across aviation, agriculture, and automotive industries amid an effective Hormuz shutdown. Global inventories are already at five-year lows with spare capacity concentrated in the region, and crude has spiked to nearly $120 per barrel from $69 in 2025. Aramco reported full-year net income of $104.7B, beating the $24.8B Q4 consensus, and declared a Q4 base dividend of $21.9B, up +3.5% YoY, alongside a new $3B buyback program.
YouTube to Become World's Largest Media Company
Alphabet's (GOOGL) YouTube generated $62B in full-year 2025 revenue, narrowly surpassing Disney's (DIS) $60.9B to claim the title of the world's largest media company, per MoffettNathanson research. YouTube is now 50% larger than Netflix (NFLX) by revenue and, if spun off, would be valued at $500B-$560B, more than all five major Hollywood studios combined. Analysts see YouTube as a rare dual beneficiary of both tech and media tailwinds, with AI expected to further accelerate creator output and ad monetization.
U.S. Blacklisting Could Cost Anthropic Billions in 2026 Revenue
Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao warned in a court filing that the U.S. government's blacklisting could reduce 2026 revenue by multiple billions of dollars after the Department of War dropped its contract and labeled the company a "supply-chain risk" over its refusal to grant unrestricted AI model access. Immediate damage is already materializing, with a $100M+ FDA deployment pipeline lost to a competitor and two financial services deals worth over $80M stalled. Backers Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) have confirmed they will keep Anthropic's technology in their products, excluding U.S. Defense Department work.
Bill Ackman Takes Pershing Square Public
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has filed an S-1 with the SEC for a dual IPO, converting into Pershing Square Inc. while also launching a closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA (PSUS), targeting a combined raise of $5–$10B, with $2.8B already committed from institutional investors at $50/share. Both entities will list on the NYSE under "PS" and "PSUS," with Ackman touting permanent capital as the key to taking a long-term, opportunistic approach without being forced to sell assets during market downturns.
