Fourth Day of Conflict Sends Oil Higher and Risk Assets Lower
Markets are down more than -1.6% as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran enters a fourth day and investors grapple with mounting energy and geopolitical risks. Crude surged to $85/barrel, its highest level since July 2024, while European gas prices spiked as much as +32% amid threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy flows. Disruptions to LNG production in Qatar and damage near the UAE’s Fujairah oil hub have heightened fears of prolonged supply constraints.
Target Gains on Signs of Stabilization Despite Revenue Decline
Target (TGT) is up over +5% in premarket trading after delivering stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings, even as revenue and traffic continued to decline. Sales slipped -1.5% YoY to $30.5B and comparable sales fell -2.5%, but EPS of $2.44 topped estimates. Management highlighted improving trends late in the quarter, with February turning positive YoY, and guided to roughly +2% full-year sales growth. The market appears to be reacting less to past weakness and more to the prospect that the company’s turnaround may be starting to gain traction.
Best Buy Jumps as Profit Beat Offsets Soft Sales
Best Buy (BBY) is up over +10% in premarket trading after topping earnings expectations despite a revenue miss in the holiday quarter. EPS of $2.61 beat estimates, while revenue of $13.8B dipped slightly YoY and fell short of forecasts as comparable sales declined -0.8%. Management guided for relatively flat comps in the new fiscal year, signaling cautious optimism amid a mixed consumer backdrop. Investors appeared encouraged by improved profitability and growth in higher-margin areas like advertising and marketplace expansion, lifting shares sharply.
MongoDB Craters on Mixed Outlook Despite AI-Fueled Beat
MongoDB (MDB) is plunging in premarket trading, down more than -26%, after issuing mixed guidance that disappointed investors, with Q1 FY2027 EPS forecast slightly below expectations despite full-year guidance topping estimates. The cautious outlook overshadowed an otherwise strong quarter, with revenue up +27% YoY, a solid EPS beat, Atlas revenue rising +29%, and total customers surpassing 65,000. Management pointed to durable growth, expanding margins, and rising AI-driven demand, while also announcing leadership changes, including a new Chief Customer Officer and the departure of two senior revenue executives.
On Holding Drops as 2026 Outlook Trails Expectations
On Holding (ONON) is down over -13% in premarket trading despite posting record 2025 sales and strong Q4 results. Revenue rose +31% in constant currency to 743.8M Swiss francs, topping estimates, and full-year sales surpassed ₣3B for the first time. However, 2026 guidance for at least +23% growth implies sales below consensus expectations, tempering enthusiasm. While margins improved and Asia-Pacific surged +85%, investors appear concerned that premium positioning may face pressure amid rising competition and a tougher pricing environment.
