5 Things to Watch on
February 25, 2026

Markets are moving higher today, looking to post another constructive session, as investors prepare for Nvidia’s (NVDA) fourth-quarter earnings after the close, a key test for the AI bellwether. While forward EPS estimates continue to rise, the stock has moved largely sideways in recent months, diverging from its earlier pattern of tracking, and often front-running, earnings upgrades. The disconnect suggests investors may be reassessing valuation multiples amid profit-taking, volatility, and growing sensitivity to execution, supply, and competitive risks. With expectations elevated, the next move likely hinges less on estimate revisions and more on whether NVDA can clear an increasingly high bar.

President Trump’s State of the Union address last night focused heavily on the economic backdrop, highlighting cooling inflation, lower prices on select consumer goods, four-year lows in mortgage rates, and a stock market that has posted dozens of new all-time highs since the election. He emphasized a surge in reported investment commitments and defended tariffs as a significant revenue source, signaling plans to preserve them despite legal challenges, which could have ongoing implications for trade flows and corporate margins.

MercadoLibre (MELI) is down more than -6% in premarket trading despite posting strong Q4 results, with revenue surging +44.6% year over year, beating estimates. Gross merchandise volume rose +37%, led by Mexico (+49%) and Brazil (+46%), while total payment volume climbed +42%; however, EPS of $11.03 missed expectations and declined from last year. The company generated $763M in free cash flow and highlighted strong momentum in Mexico, where fulfillment penetration increased significantly, alongside accelerating growth in MELI+ subscribers.

Axon Enterprise (AXON) is up more than +15% in premarket trading after delivering a strong quarter, with revenue up +39% year over year, ahead of estimates, and EPS of $2.15 topping expectations. Software and services revenue jumped +40% and the company guided for +27%–30% revenue growth in 2026. While GAAP net income declined sharply and gross margins tightened due to tariffs and product mix, AXON ended 2025 with $1.4B in ARR and $14.4B in future bookings, and introduced ambitious 2028 targets of $6B in revenue, underscoring confidence in its AI-driven growth strategy.

First Solar (FSLR) shares are down more than -16% in premarket trading after the company missed expectations and issued weak FY 2026 revenue guidance, citing permitting delays and tariff-related headwinds under the Trump administration. While Q4 profit rose and revenue increased +11% year over year on higher module volumes, management guided to $4.9B–$5.2B in 2026 revenue, well below the $6.2B consensus, on flat-to-lower shipment volumes. CEO Mark Widmar said the outlook reflects strategic underutilization of Southeast Asian factories amid tariff uncertainty, with a projected $125M–$135M tariff impact in 2026.