5 Things to Watch on
January 26, 2026

Markets are mixed in premarket trading as investors weigh rising political uncertainty, including sharply higher odds of a U.S. government shutdown and renewed tariff threats from the White House. Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, reflecting a more cautious tone as news volatility remains elevated despite relatively contained market volatility.

Tensions between the U.S. and Canada escalated after President Trump threatened 100% tariffs if Ottawa pursues deeper trade ties with China, while prediction markets now price a high probability of a U.S. government shutdown after January 30. Canada pushed back, saying its recent limited trade agreement with China is consistent with USMCA rules, but the episode has reinforced concerns around trade policy unpredictability and added another layer of risk for markets early in the year.

Nvidia (NVDA) is on track to become Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM) largest customer this year, overtaking Apple (AAPL) as AI chip demand reshapes the semiconductor industry. Analysts estimate NVDA could account for roughly 22% of TSM's revenue, reflecting surging orders for complex, high-value AI accelerators. The shift underscores how the AI infrastructure buildout has moved the center of gravity at TSM from smartphone chips toward data center and cloud-driven demand.

Alphabet (GOOGL) has acquired Common Sense Machines, an AI startup focused on building generative models for creating 3D assets. The deal signals GOOGL's growing interest in tools that bridge artificial intelligence with immersive digital content. A GOOGL spokesperson confirmed the acquisition, highlighting continued investment in next-generation AI capabilities as competition intensifies across creative, gaming, and spatial computing markets.

Cisco (CSCO) is up more than +2.0% in premarket trading after Evercore upgraded the stock, arguing the market underestimates the durability of its growth story. The firm sees a multiyear refresh cycle in enterprise networking, rising AI-related demand, and renewed momentum in telecom and core enterprise spending. Combined with product innovation and operating leverage, CSCO is positioned as a steady compounder rather than a legacy tech name.

USA Rare Earth (USAR) is up over +19.0% in premarket trading after announcing the U.S. Department of Commerce plans to take an equity stake, signaling strong federal backing. The deal includes a $1.3B loan and $277M in funding, alongside shares and warrants issued to Commerce, to support a magnet plant in Oklahoma and the Round Top mine in Texas. The move advances the Trump administration's push to build a domestic rare earth supply chain and reduce reliance on China.